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JUSTIN KELLY — You can’t time the market

Why you should avoid practicing market timing

There are many things that could affect the overall equity market and any individual stocks you may own—from economic trends to geopolitical events like an election. What is certain is that the market will always have its peaks and dips.

This market cycle can make it tempting for investors to attempt to buy and sell stocks at particular times to maximize gains and avoid down periods. This investment strategy is known as market timing, the practice of moving in and out of the market based on predicting when the market will shift.1

Missing out on market moves

Although the idea of market timing can be tempting, it is also extremely difficult for most investors to predict the future of the market. In fact, those who try to time the market may actually underperform investors who simply buy and hold stocks.2

One reason is the tendency of the market to experience big upswings and downswings on adjacent days during periods of market volatility. That means an investor who sells after a substantial down day for the market may miss a subsequent period of gains. Also, many investors let emotions dictate their actions, leading them to buy stocks when the market has already gained in value, only to sell when the market has declined, leading to sluggish returns. Moreover, even with sophisticated tools to analyze the factors affecting stock prices, it is very difficult to forecast future stock market movements.

Also, missing out on just some days in a market cycle can drag down returns considerably. The S&P 500 generated an annualized return of 9.6% between 1990 to 2018 for investors who were invested during that entire period. Investors who missed just the 15 best days during that period only enjoyed returns of 3.6%, and investors who missed the best 90 days actually suffered an annualized loss of 3.5%.3

Market timing can carry costs

Along with possibly missing out on market gains, market timing can have other penalties. The transaction costs from buying and selling stocks can add up and drag down overall returns. In addition, investors who do sell stocks for a gain will likely trigger capital gains taxes, again reducing their overall profit.1

Creating and staying with a financial strategy can help you avoid making rash moves in response to what’s happening in the market. A Financial Advisor can help you tailor a framework that’s set against your long-term goals and considers key aspects of your financial life, from your age and aspirations to current market opportunities. While market conditions may vary, a personalized, adaptable wealth strategy that’s centered around your life goals should remain a constant as you build your wealth and plan for your future.

Footnotes
1  https://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/markettiming.asp
2 https://www.forbes.com/sites/simonmoore/2016/03/07/the-myth-of-market-timing/#53448611461e
3 Morgan Stanley Client Conversations & Primers, Intro to Investing PDF – Market Timing Is a Flawed and Costly Strategy Charts
Disclosures

Article by Morgan Stanley and provided courtesy of Morgan Stanley Financial Advisor.

Justin Kelly is a Financial Advisor in Jackson, MS at Morgan Stanley Smith Barney LLC (“Morgan Stanley”). He can be reached by email at justin.kelly@morganstanley.com or by telephone at (601) 321-7713.

This article has been prepared for informational purposes only. The information and data in the article has been obtained from sources outside of Morgan Stanley. Morgan Stanley makes no representations or guarantees as to the accuracy or completeness of the information or data from sources outside of Morgan Stanley. It does not provide individually tailored investment advice and has been prepared without regard to the individual financial circumstances and objectives of persons who receive it. The strategies and/or investments discussed in this article may not be suitable for all investors. Morgan Stanley recommends that investors independently evaluate particular investments and strategies, and encourages investors to seek the advice of a Financial Advisor. The appropriateness of a particular investment or strategy will depend on an investor’s individual circumstances and objectives.

Morgan Stanley Smith Barney LLC (“Morgan Stanley”) and its Financial Advisors and Private Wealth Advisors do not provide any tax/legal advice. Consult your own tax/legal advisor before making any tax or legal-related investment decisions.

Justin Kelly may only transact business, follow-up with individualized responses, or render personalized investment advice for compensation, in states where he is registered or excluded or exempted from registration, https://brokercheck.finra.org/individual/summary/6201796

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