Forecaster delays release of hurricane prediction

by Associated Press

Published: December 15,2011

Tags: forecasters, hurricanes, meterology, predictions, severe weather, tropical weather, Weather

GULF OF MEXICO — Hurricane forecaster William Gray will wait until spring to predict how many storms will form in the Atlantic.

Gray and his research partner at Colorado State University, Philip Klotzbach, usually start making predictions in December but this month, for the first time in 20 years, they’re holding off on forecasting the number of named storms, including hurricanes.

Klotzbach says they’ve tried various models but none have been successful in estimating the number of storms that early. He acknowledges that, currently, predicting hurricanes that far out is “just about as good as making a guess.”

CSU will still issue a discussion of possible hurricane activity each December but the first estimate of the number of storms won’t come until April.

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